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HomeNationalHow push for Opposition coalition collapsed

How push for Opposition coalition collapsed

For the first time since 1996 – when the first general election under President Museveni was held – the Opposition forces will go into the election without visible efforts to form a coalition. 
This is despite consistent rhetoric on the part of all Opposition players about the need for a coalition.
Mr Patrick Amuriat Oboi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Mr Nobert Mao of the Democratic Party (DP), Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), and Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, aliasBobi Wine, of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party are all set to be nominated to challenge Mr Museveni.
Also to be nominated to compete for the same office are Independent candidates Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde, Mr Joseph Kabuleta, Mr Fred Mwesigye and Ms Nancy Linda Kalembe.
To some players, especially those in the FDC, the faith in a drive for Opposition unity against President Museveni took a beating in the lead up to the 2016 General Election, when they interpreted the Democratic Alliance (TDA) as having been formed to target them.
The TDA process failed to pick a joint candidate between Dr Kizza Besigye and Mr Amama Mbabazi, with different players siding with either candidate. 
Those who sided with Mr Mbabazi accused Dr Besigye of FDC for not giving way.   
Because of what had happened in the TDA process, talk about building a coalition for the 2021 General Election was muted. The other parties, especially FDC, largely kept quiet about talks about coalition. 
It was DP under Mr Mao which drummed it up. In the March 2018 by-election in Jinja East, where the Opposition worked together to deliver victory for then FDC candidate, Mr Paul Mwiru, who beat the NRM’s candidate, Mr Mao was all praises for the level of cooperation that had been exhibited.
“Jinja is a watershed. It has spoken louder than any words that there is need for unity. People think Mr Museveni will be pushed out with one big push, but no. It will be through a blow by blow account,” he said.
Mr Mao was optimistic that the spirit would last into the 2021 General Election if the parties stuck to the principles that guided the way they had cooperated. 
He argued that maintaining the level of cooperation and unity would be easier, given that the bickering between FDC and DP had subsided.
DP Bloc born
Mr Mao’s DP then forged what it called the DP Bloc, bringing DP together with two tiny, stuttering parties – the People’s Development Party (PDP) of Dr Abed Bwanika, and  the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Mr Michael Mabikke in July 2019. The aim was for it to be a “special purpose vehicle” through which Opposition unity would be forged.
The DP Bloc attracted Mr Kyagulanyi, who at the time was still operating under the pressure group People Power, to a number of its functions. 
When the arrangement seemed to be serving different objectives to what Mr Mao had envisioned – he said it had been turned into a platform for Mr Kyagulanyi to push his presidential ambitions – he put it on ice.   
But before the DP Bloc died, Mr Mao had huffed and puffed, calling on other Opposition parties to join the bloc’s initiative to cause unity. 
After he cajoled and threatened the other parties without too much of a response, Mr Mao said he and DP would then go it alone, too. 
Mr Mao, told Sunday Monitor on Thursday that it was only the ANT which wrote back to DP indicating that the suggestions in the proposal for unity would be discussed at the party’s delegates’ conference before a decision could be made.
Plans to hold the ANT conference were impeded by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even when it was held, the DP proposal never made it to the agenda.
Mr Mao now thinks there was a lack of seriousness on the part of his colleagues in the Opposition.
“Negotiations, as you know, start with a proposal. The DP Bloc sent out its proposal, but save for the ANT, which said it would discuss the matter before getting back to us, the other parties did not. As it turned out, the only serious party was DP. The others were merely posturing,” Mr Mao said.
Whereas Mr Mao sought to be the nucleus for talks in this round of elections, he refused to involve DP in talks for Opposition unity in 2011, preferring to go it alone, having freshly taken over as president of DP. 
No talks
Earlier this month, there were reports that retired politician Dr Paul Ssemogerere had been engaging various Opposition politicians with a view of forging unity and possibly have a joint candidate for the coming elections, but it now appears the suggestion is dead on arrival.

The FDC president and presidential candidate, Mr Amuriat, and the spokesperson of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, told Sunday Monitor, that whereas the talk between Opposition parties has been rife, nothing concrete has ever taken place.
“We had discussions before NUP came up. As the People Power, we engaged in some discussions, because we knew each of us would be bringing something, we would be joining experiences, potential and resources, but we didn’t concretise those discussions. Everyone seemed to get too busy,” Mr Ssenyonyi said.
The push for unity that was championed by People Power principal, now NUP leader Kyagulanyi, was met with disfavour from a number of Opposition players. Mr Kyagulanyi was criticised for pushing for a coalition but on the strict condition that he would be the one to lead it. 
Mr Mao, one of the key critics of Mr Kyagulanyi’s approach, has repeatedly claimed that the latter’s approach was to “first get a captain (Kyagulanyi) before forming a team (coalition)”. FDC’s Amuriat said whereas FDC has been represented by its chairman, Mr Wasswa Biriggwa, in talks such as those being brokered by Dr Ssemogerere, it has not been involved as an institution.
“Institutionally, there has been nothing discussed in the direction of having a joint Opposition presidential candidate or candidates at lower levels. We haven’t been in talks with any group about a potential joint candidate or coalition,” Mr Amuriat said.
Mr Amuriat said whereas he cannot rule out the possibility of talks being carried out after the nominations or during the campaign period, the writing on the wall already indicates that talks about a coalition are an impossible mission.
“The tone that has been set by the other parties and individuals in the Opposition suggests that it (coalition and talks) is not possible,” Mr Amuriat said.
Mr Amuriat is to be nominated on Tuesday. He will be running for president for the first time, with his party having been represented by Dr Kizza Besigye on three previous occasions. FDC was formed in the lead up to the 2006 election with Dr Besigye already having participated in the 2001 election when parties were still banned. 
On all the four occasions when Dr Besigye has competed in the past, he has attempted to reach out to other Opposition players to rally behind him, and a number have done so.  
Contention
The biggest contention has been over whether elections can lead to a change of leadership and government. 
The FDC leadership has been consistent in its belief that the electoral process cannot lead to a different candidate other than Mr Museveni being declared winner. It is only Mr Kyagulanyi who in the lead up to the process has maintained belief that he can still win. 
Others, especially FDC, say they will participate chiefly to mobilise Ugandans for change and not necessarily in the hope that their candidate will be declared winner by the Electoral Commission. 
In 2019, while attending a meeting of the DP Bloc, Mr Kyagulanyi took a swipe at those who he claimed participated in one election after the other, but continued to vilify elections as an exercise that never works.
 Mr Kyagulanyi was understood to be referring to Dr Besigye, who has consistently expressed reservations about elections under President Museveni but continued to engage in them, arguing that the process at least offered a window for mobilising Ugandans towards change. 
Now Mr Amuriat suggests that any talks about a coalition should also focus on whether or not elections can work to lead to the kind of change that the Opposition desires.
“I am glad some of those groups which have been criticising us for our stand on elections have now started realising that they are dealing with a dictatorship, and that dealing with a dictatorship requires operating outside the normal mode. However, if this (opposing stands on elections) is not resolved, we are going to go our separate ways,” Mr Amuriat says.
The biggest challenge to any talks has, however, always been the suspicion with which FDC views other political parties.
Mr Amuriat argues that whereas his party has always been open to engaging others to form a common front against the NRM, some of those with which it has been engaging have never come to the negotiating table with clean hands.
 He claimed that some of the actors during the failed TDA talks had come with bad faith against the FDC.
“Some actors were backstabbers who weren’t keen on the coalition. Some have since gone to the NRM and others have for no clear reason turned into some of FDC’s worst foes. If we are to have talks, they have to be focused and we have to know the intentions of those who are participating,” Mr Amuriat says.
Conflicting ambitions
It is, however, emerging that even if the parties had held talks about the possibility of a joint candidate or candidates, the proposal was always bound to be ruined because of personal ambitions of the actors and also conflict with the party’s various programmes.
“When everyone is intent on running, it becomes complicated. Everyone, the presidential candidates, the MP candidates, those who got the flag and those who did not get the flag, are intent on standing. It is hard to hold talks under such circumstances,” Mr Ssenyonyi says.
Both Mr Ssenyonyi and Mr Amuriat argue that whereas talks were not held, the channels of communication between the parties remain open, which also leaves the doors for talks open.
“The beauty is that we are still in touch. We at least have a cordial working relationship, which means that we are not going to fight in the field,” Mr Ssenyonyi said
Mr Amuriat says even if initiatives to force the parties onto the negotiating table do not materialise, the parties have several areas in which they can cooperate to give a semblance of credibility to the 2021 general elections.
He lists those as sending out a common message that everything has collapsed and that Uganda for that reason needs change, standing up against harassment by security forces and agents of the NRM, and vote protection.
The Opposition has previously failed to cooperate. Sections of it have if anything jumped into bed with the Police and the NRM in order to preserve themselves. Will they be able to cooperate in the three areas that Mr Amuriat suggests? That is the question.

PAST COALITIONS
1996

In 1996, Opposition parties Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and the National Liberal Party (NLP) rallied behind former Democratic Party (DP) President General, Dr Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, who stood as the presidential candidate of the Inter Political Forces Cooperation (IPFC).
Besides agreeing on a joint presidential candidate, the parties agreed to work as much as possible to have joint candidates at all other levels.
UPC was at the time not in a position to field a candidate as its leader, Milton Obote, was in exile in Zambia, but even if it had been in a position to field one, such a candidate stood no chance in most parts of Southern Uganda where its human rights record during the period between 1980 and 1985 had taken quite a battering.
According to Mr Peter Mukidi Walubiri, a UPC member and lawyer who participated in some of the negotiations that led to the alliance, the party also had serious reservations about the NRM’s insistence on holding elections under a no-party system.
“There was not much of a contestation about Ssemogerere’s candidate because UPC was reluctant to participate in an individual merit type of election. On the other hand, DP seemed to have a little bit of faith in individual merit” Mr Walubiri said.
At the same time, no single party stood a chance against the NRM if it dared go it alone.
“Museveni and his NRM had been in power for close to 10 years. The NRM had the state, the military, public resources and public servants. The parties on the other hand had neither resources nor structures. There was not realistic chance of victory except by working together” Mr Walubiri says.
2001
In October 2000 following a meeting held at the party’s headquarters on Johnson Street, in Kampala, DP elders adopted a motion moved by the party’s Masaka District chairperson, Mr Leo Mugambe, which saw the party throw its weight behind Reform Agenda candidate, Col Dr Kizza Besigye, in the 2001 elections.
2006 and 2011
Whereas DP fielded presidential candidates John Ssebaana Kizito and Norbert Mao during the 2006 and the 2011 elections, sections of the party’s faithful allied themselves to FDC candidate, Dr Besigye.
The DP members’ presence in the FDC campaign was perhaps more pronounced in 2011 when prominent party members,  including Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago, Mr Mathias Mpuuga and the former Katikiro of Buganda, Mr Mulwanyamuli Ssemogerere, who were members of the pressure group Suubi (Hope), formed, along with the Conservative Party (CP), an alliance with FDC.
2016
In the months leading up to the 2016 General Election Opposition parties engaged in discussions under the umbrella of the Democratic Alliance (TDA), about the possibility of fielding a single candidate, but the talks failed following disagreements on who would be the best suited candidate.
DP threw its weight behind former Prime Minister, Mr John Patrick Amama Mbabazi, while FDC opted to go it alone. FDC which fielded Dr Besigye was backed by CP And some DP members who had earlier worked with FDC during the 2011 elections.

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